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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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Showing 3411 to 3415 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
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