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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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