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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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