We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
|
|
|
Showing 3406 to 3410 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
