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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
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