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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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