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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 14 September 14
FREIGHT RATES RALLY AS DEMAND INCREASED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number (in US$) issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange up 2.25 percent week on week. BDI cl ...
Friday, 12 September 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 673.3 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 11 September 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET IS TAKING A BREATHER - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We have experienced more activity in both hemispheres this week, said Fearnleys in this week's weekly report.
"We see rates c ...
Wednesday, 10 September 14
ARE GREEK BANKS ON THE VERGE TO START LENDING AGAIN? - JOHN N. COTZIAS
It is well known that Greek Banks had suffered severely after the economic crisis of 2008. From that period onwards, major changes have occur ...
Tuesday, 09 September 14
WEAK M&A DESPITE ABUNDANT DISTRESSED INDONESIA COAL ASSETS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that a meaningful level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity leading to a consolidation of the coal sector ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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