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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 18 September 14
INDONESIA'S JULY COAL EXPORT VOLUME DROPPED 5.13% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.65* ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
PANAMAX : US GULF/CHINA FRONTHAUL ARE NOW PAYING TYPICALLY 14.5K + 450K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
We still see a firming tendency in the Atlantic and it is still ECSA and USG leading on. USG/Cont now up in about USD 17/18k for a Smax whi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING: A GUIDE TO PAPERLESS TRADING WHICH HAS TAKEN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY BY STORM
Bimco has recently developed and published a charter party clause that specifically addresses the use of electronic bills of lading. Increasing use ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
PANAMAX: LIMITED INTEREST IN BOTH BASINS; RISING TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
With the week starting off at a fast pace and with the positive momentum from the previous Friday seemingly sticking around for a bit longer, most ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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