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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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