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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 07 September 14
SHIPMANAGERS SUPERVISION CONTRACT FOR NEWBUILDS - BIMCO
Shipmanagers are frequently called upon by their owner clients to supervise newbuilding projects on their behalf. The scope of the manager’s ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
SLOW COAL EXPORT REGISTRATION RAISES CONCERNS - THE JAKARTA POST
Several coal mining companies have yet to receive the go-ahead from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to obtain exporting licenses, leading ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
INDONESIA WANTS TO REGULATE COAL DEALS - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
Indonesia has raised concerns about suspected coal deals struck between overseas buyers and its unregistered domestic miners, the telegraph India r ...
Friday, 05 September 14
U.S. PRODUCED 19.2 MMST OF COAL LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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