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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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