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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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