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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
...
Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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