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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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