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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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