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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 October 14
INDONESIA TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM COAL INDUSTRY - JP
The government is planning to launch a program to develop the downstream coal industry to increase the commodity’s added value, an official h ...
Friday, 10 October 14
U.S. PRODUCED 83.2 MMST OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKNESS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We mentioned last week that after several weeks of rate increase for the Supras, the bigger Panamaxes started to snap up better paying Supr ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
SHIPPING REMAINS CHALLENGED AS GLOBAL GROWTH DISAPPOINTS - BIMCO
The global shipping industry finds no grace from much stronger economic activity going forward, as the global recovery remains fragile and uneven. ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
CAPES RATE FOR THE W. AUSTRALIA TO CHINA VOYAGE MOVED TO BELOW $8/MT - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, with rates for Capes remaining on the red while those for Panamaxes managed to outperform th ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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