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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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