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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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