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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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