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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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