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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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