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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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