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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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