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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 August 14
LACK OF COAL SHIPMENTS FROM FAR EAST/SE ASIA, THE PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES CONTINUED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: This week, the freight rates were almost flat as charter rates were also almost steady from last week.
The BDI was up by 2.59 pc ...
Friday, 01 August 14
UNCERTAINTY IN ASIAN COAL MARKETS WHERE INDEX-LINKED PRICING DOMINATES - SGX
COALspot.com: In the past 3 years, seaborne thermal coal markets have been in a state of constant oversupply.
Reuters expects this oversupply ...
Friday, 01 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
CAPESIZE: CARGO VOLUMES, COAL IN PARTICULAR, PRESENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO EMPLOY A GROWING FLEET - FERNLEYS
Handy
Both the Atlantic and Pacific has improved in the supramax segment over the last week, said Fernleys in Its latest weekly report . There we ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
RIO TINTO SELLS MOZAMBIQUE COAL ASSETS FOR US$ 50 MILLION TO INDIA'S ICVL
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has agreed to sell its Mozambique coal assets for just US$ 50 million to International coal ventures Private limited of Ind ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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