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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 August 14
LACK OF COAL SHIPMENTS FROM FAR EAST/SE ASIA, THE PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES CONTINUED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: This week, the freight rates were almost flat as charter rates were also almost steady from last week.
The BDI was up by 2.59 pc ...
Friday, 01 August 14
UNCERTAINTY IN ASIAN COAL MARKETS WHERE INDEX-LINKED PRICING DOMINATES - SGX
COALspot.com: In the past 3 years, seaborne thermal coal markets have been in a state of constant oversupply.
Reuters expects this oversupply ...
Friday, 01 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
CAPESIZE: CARGO VOLUMES, COAL IN PARTICULAR, PRESENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO EMPLOY A GROWING FLEET - FERNLEYS
Handy
Both the Atlantic and Pacific has improved in the supramax segment over the last week, said Fernleys in Its latest weekly report . There we ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
RIO TINTO SELLS MOZAMBIQUE COAL ASSETS FOR US$ 50 MILLION TO INDIA'S ICVL
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has agreed to sell its Mozambique coal assets for just US$ 50 million to International coal ventures Private limited of Ind ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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