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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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