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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
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