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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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