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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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