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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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