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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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