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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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