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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PERFORMED WELL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.45 (+0.66%) day on day and US$ 0.30 (+0.44%)&nbs ...
Saturday, 16 August 14
HIGH DEMAND OF IRON ORE SHIPMENTS PUSHED CAPE INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: This week's freight market was buoyant with Cape and panamax index seeing a big jump pushing the BDI above 1,000 points week on c ...
Friday, 15 August 14
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
5TH ANNUAL POWER AND ELECTRICITY INDONESIA
13-16 October 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
The country’s definitive ...
Thursday, 14 August 14
U.S. STEAM COAL IMPORTS REMAIN DOWN SHARPLY FROM HISTORIC HIGH IN 2007, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. steam coal imports at power plants have fallen significantly from their peak level of more than 30 million tons in 2007 to less ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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