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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 August 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.4% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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