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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
Sunday, 24 August 14
SEA FREIGHT MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK POSITIVE; CAPES DRIVE FREIGHTS HIGHER
COALspot.com: The freight market has strengthen further this week with BDI up 7.19 pct week on week. The BDI was closed at 1,088 points while the B ...
Friday, 22 August 14
INDIAN IRON ORE ROYALTY RISE NOT LIKELY TO HURT STEELMAKERS' MARGINS - FITCH
Fitch Ratings does not expect an increase in India's iron ore royalty rates to have a major impact on the profitability of steel producers in t ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ARBITRATION CLAUSE IN LOU HELD TO REPLACE CHARTERPARTY ARBITRATION CLAUSE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Claimants had claims for cargo damage against the vessel Owners arising under four bills of lading. The vessel was th ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ICAP ENERGY LAUNCHES GLOBAL COKING COAL DERIVATIVES TRADING
First contract completed and cleared on CME
COALspot.com: ICAP Energy, the energy business of ICAP plc, announces today that it has successful ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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