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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
Sunday, 24 August 14
SEA FREIGHT MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK POSITIVE; CAPES DRIVE FREIGHTS HIGHER
COALspot.com: The freight market has strengthen further this week with BDI up 7.19 pct week on week. The BDI was closed at 1,088 points while the B ...
Friday, 22 August 14
INDIAN IRON ORE ROYALTY RISE NOT LIKELY TO HURT STEELMAKERS' MARGINS - FITCH
Fitch Ratings does not expect an increase in India's iron ore royalty rates to have a major impact on the profitability of steel producers in t ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ARBITRATION CLAUSE IN LOU HELD TO REPLACE CHARTERPARTY ARBITRATION CLAUSE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Claimants had claims for cargo damage against the vessel Owners arising under four bills of lading. The vessel was th ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ICAP ENERGY LAUNCHES GLOBAL COKING COAL DERIVATIVES TRADING
First contract completed and cleared on CME
COALspot.com: ICAP Energy, the energy business of ICAP plc, announces today that it has successful ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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