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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 August 14
GOVT ON TRACK TO LIMIT COAL OUTPUT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has announced that it will proceed with plans to cap the production of coal next year, a move aimed not only at protecting the envir ...
Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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