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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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