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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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