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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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