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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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