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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 September 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO. LTD INVITES BIDS FOR 1 MMT OF BITUMINOUS & SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: KOMIPO again in the market for 1 million tons of 5700 NAR and 4600 NAR coal for Jan – March 2015. South Korean state-owned util ...
Wednesday, 03 September 14
CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR JAN 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 68.30 PMT; DOWN 2.43% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.95 (-1.39%) day on day and US$ 1.40 (-2.03%) week on wee ...
Tuesday, 02 September 14
BERAU COAL HAS AWARDED A CONTRACT EXTENSION TO BUMA FOR 647 MLN BCM OVERBURDEN REMOVAL
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“DOID”) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (&l ...
Monday, 01 September 14
GLOBALCOAL WELCOMES TWO NEW MARKET MEMBERS
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced today that two Market Members have joined its trading community. Both new Market Members are from the India ...
Sunday, 31 August 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES INTO INDIA FROM INDONESIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to firm this week. BDI up 5.42 percent week ended 29 August and closed at 1147 points while the Ca ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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