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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
Sunday, 14 September 14
FREIGHT RATES RALLY AS DEMAND INCREASED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number (in US$) issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange up 2.25 percent week on week. BDI cl ...
Friday, 12 September 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 673.3 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 11 September 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET IS TAKING A BREATHER - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We have experienced more activity in both hemispheres this week, said Fearnleys in this week's weekly report.
"We see rates c ...
Wednesday, 10 September 14
ARE GREEK BANKS ON THE VERGE TO START LENDING AGAIN? - JOHN N. COTZIAS
It is well known that Greek Banks had suffered severely after the economic crisis of 2008. From that period onwards, major changes have occur ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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