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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
INDONESIA'S JULY COAL EXPORT VOLUME DROPPED 5.13% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.65* ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
PANAMAX : US GULF/CHINA FRONTHAUL ARE NOW PAYING TYPICALLY 14.5K + 450K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
We still see a firming tendency in the Atlantic and it is still ECSA and USG leading on. USG/Cont now up in about USD 17/18k for a Smax whi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING: A GUIDE TO PAPERLESS TRADING WHICH HAS TAKEN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY BY STORM
Bimco has recently developed and published a charter party clause that specifically addresses the use of electronic bills of lading. Increasing use ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
PANAMAX: LIMITED INTEREST IN BOTH BASINS; RISING TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
With the week starting off at a fast pace and with the positive momentum from the previous Friday seemingly sticking around for a bit longer, most ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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