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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
WEAK M&A DESPITE ABUNDANT DISTRESSED INDONESIA COAL ASSETS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that a meaningful level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity leading to a consolidation of the coal sector ...
Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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