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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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