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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
SHIPMANAGERS SUPERVISION CONTRACT FOR NEWBUILDS - BIMCO
Shipmanagers are frequently called upon by their owner clients to supervise newbuilding projects on their behalf. The scope of the manager’s ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
SLOW COAL EXPORT REGISTRATION RAISES CONCERNS - THE JAKARTA POST
Several coal mining companies have yet to receive the go-ahead from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to obtain exporting licenses, leading ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
INDONESIA WANTS TO REGULATE COAL DEALS - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
Indonesia has raised concerns about suspected coal deals struck between overseas buyers and its unregistered domestic miners, the telegraph India r ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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