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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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