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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such ...
Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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