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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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