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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 23 July 14
HARD COAL 2013: THE WORLD'S SECOND-MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE AND GUARANTOR FOR THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS
Hard coal is again in 2013 the fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in the world. As shown in the BP Statistical Review 2014, it covered ab ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
THE CURRENT COAL PRICES ARE UNPROFITABLE FOR MINERS; COAL PRICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE - FITCH
COALspot.com: The Fitch Ratings expect the benchmark Newcastle coal prices (currently at about USD70/MT) to gradually increase.
Fitch's la ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3' 14 DOWN 5.21%; Q4' 14 DOWN 3.56%; Q1' 15 DOWN 4.75% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 flat on day, weak week on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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