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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
Sunday, 20 July 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNWARD TREND
COALspot.com: The market continued its downward trend this week as all segments were down compared to last week. The Cape and Panamax indices being ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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