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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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