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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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