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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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