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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
HARD COAL 2013: THE WORLD'S SECOND-MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE AND GUARANTOR FOR THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS
Hard coal is again in 2013 the fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in the world. As shown in the BP Statistical Review 2014, it covered ab ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
THE CURRENT COAL PRICES ARE UNPROFITABLE FOR MINERS; COAL PRICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE - FITCH
COALspot.com: The Fitch Ratings expect the benchmark Newcastle coal prices (currently at about USD70/MT) to gradually increase.
Fitch's la ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3' 14 DOWN 5.21%; Q4' 14 DOWN 3.56%; Q1' 15 DOWN 4.75% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 flat on day, weak week on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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