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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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