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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 July 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNWARD TREND
COALspot.com: The market continued its downward trend this week as all segments were down compared to last week. The Cape and Panamax indices being ...
Friday, 18 July 14
3RD CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Building on the massive success of the past 2 shale gas programs that has generated huge success by attracting 500+ industry players, and intrig ...
Friday, 18 July 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 1.4% TO 18.3 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS COOLED DOWN AGAIN TO LOW AND DEPRESSED LEVELS
Handy
The supra market remains pretty flat in the Atlantic while for the smaller sizes there has been little reported with ships chasing business ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT WISE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CURRENTLY LOW THERMAL COAL PRICES AND SHIPPING RATES - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
With thermal coal import prices (and also shipping rates) very low at present, India's government would be very wise to take advantage of curre ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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