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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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