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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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