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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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